18 January 2023

Hospitality toasts best December in three years, but real term sales lag pre-COVID

Total Like For Like Sales Growth
  • Festive celebrations and World Cup boost pubs
  • London’s COVID revival continues but rail strikes dampen parties

Britain’s leading managed pub, bar and restaurant groups enjoyed their best December trading in three years, the new Coffer CGA Business Tracker reveals—but sales remain well below pre-COVID levels in real terms.

The Tracker—produced by CGA by NielsenIQ in partnership with The Coffer Group and RSM UK—shows like-for-like December sales were 15.0% ahead of December 2021, when festive trading was hit by concerns about the Omicron variant of COVID. However, sales were only 2.0% ahead of December 2019, and after adjustments for double-digit inflation, they are significantly behind.

It was a particularly strong Christmas for pubs, where like-for-like sales finished 19.0% ahead of December 2021 as consumers’ concerns about COVID eased and the football World Cup drove fans into venues. Year-on-year growth was more modest in restaurants at 9.1%, while sales in the bars segment were up 11.9%.

The Tracker highlights the ongoing recovery of London’s hospitality sector after COVID. December sales within the M25 were 22.8% ahead of 2021, when Omicron curtailed parties and celebrations in pubs, bars and restaurants. This is sharper year-on-year growth than outside the M25, where sales were up 12.9% year-on-year.

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NielsenIQ, said: “After two bleak Decembers, solid Christmas trading helped many pub, bar and restaurant groups to end 2022 on a high. However, it is clear that sales remain well behind pre-COVID levels in real terms, and fragile consumer confidence and rail strikes made for tough trading conditions. With the costs of energy, food and other key costs continuing to soar, operators’ sales and profit margins are under severe pressure as we move into 2023, and with venues weakened by nearly three years of disruption, targeted government support is urgently needed to protect businesses and jobs.”

Mark Sheehan, managing director at Coffer Corporate Leisure, said: “Train strikes affected trade on key trading days in December but despite disruptions trading was solid and many operators especially pubs and bars traded better than expected.  Cost pressures remains challenging but there is some optimism amongst many operators.”

Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “Whilst pubs enjoyed a welcome boost in sales from the football World Cup, the 9.1 per cent increase in restaurant sales in December were swallowed up by double-digit inflation, making this the 15th consecutive month of falling eating out like-for-likes in real terms. In better news, top line sales for the sector beat inflation for the first time since October 2021.

The headwinds facing the leisure and hospitality sector show little immediate signs of abating as consumer budgets are tightened further whilst the cost of energy, borrowing and labour remain elevated. The first few weeks of 2023 has already seen some high profile casualties with Crussh and Byron announcing site closures as part of pre-pack administration deals. The first quarter of the year is always challenging in terms of cash flow, with significant rent and VAT outflows due at the end of March and April seeing the end of energy support and the start of COVID loan repayments. These factors will undoubtedly lead to more restructurings, providing consolidation opportunities for well-funded operators to capture market share from faltering rivals.”

CGA collected sales figures directly from 80 leading companies for the latest edition of the Coffer CGA Business Tracker.

Participating companies receive a fuller detailed breakdown of monthly trading. To join the cohort, contact Andrew Dean at andrew.dean@cgastrategy.com

About the Coffer CGA Business Tracker  

Participants include: Adventure Bars, All Star Lanes, Amber Taverns, Anglian Country Inns, Azzurri Group (Ask Italian, Zizzi), Banana Tree Restaurants, Barkby Group Plc, Beds and Bars, Big Table Group (Bella Italia, Las Iguanas), Bill’s Restaurants, Bone Daddies, Boparan Restaurant Group (Carluccio’s, Gourmet Burger Kitchen), Brasserie Bar Co, BrewDog, Buzzworks Holdings Group, Byron, Cityglen Pub Co, Coaching Inn Group Ltd, Comptoir Group, Cote Restaurants, Dishoom, Dominion Hospitality, East London Pub Co, Five Guys, Fortnum & Mason, Fuller Smith & Turner, Gaucho Grill, Giggling Squid, Greene King (Chef & Brewer, Hungry Horse, Flaming Grill), Gusto Restaurants, Hall & Woodhouse, Hawthorn Leisure, Honest Burgers, Individual Restaurants, Junkyard Golf Club, Kibou Restaurants, Laine Pub Co, Le Bistrot Pierre, Liberation, Loungers, Marston’s, McMullen & Sons Ltd, Mitchells & Butlers (Harvester, Toby, Miller & Carter, All Bar One), Mowgli, Nando’s Restaurants, New World Trading Company, North Brewing Co, Oakman Inns, Parogon Pub Group, Peach Pubs, Pho, Pizza Express, Pizza Hut UK, Portobello Starboard, Prezzo, Punch Pub Co, Rekom UK, Restaurant Group (Frankie & Bennys, Chiquitos, Brunning & Price), Revolution Bars, Riley’s, Rosa’s Thai, Shepherd Neame, Snug Bar, Southern Wind Group (Fazenda),  St Austell, Star Pubs & Bars, State of Play Hospitality, Stonegate Pub Co (Slug & Lettuce, Yates’, Walkabout, Bermondsey Pub Company), Tattu, TGI Fridays UK, The Alchemist, Tonkotsu, True North Brew Co, Upham Pub Co, Various Eateries (Strada, Coppa Club), Wagamama, Wasabi, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), YO! Sushi and Young’s.

About CGA by NielsenIQ:

CGA is the definitive On Premise measurement, insight and research consultancy that empowers the world’s most successful food and drink brands. With more than 30 years’ experience and best-in-class research, data and analytics, CGA is uniquely positioned to help On Premise businesses develop winning strategies for growth.

CGA works with food and beverage suppliers, consumer brand owners, wholesalers, government entities and pub, bar and restaurant retailers to protect and shape the future of the On Premise experience. Its mission is to use phenomenal data and expert insights to give brands a competitive edge and ensure the market we love is the most vibrant possible.

To learn more, visit: www.cgastrategy.com